We can expect sustained growth in foreign trade through comprehensive policies to unleash potential
From leading indicators to enterprises' feelings and industry expectations, there have been many positive changes in foreign trade recently.
According to the latest manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the new export orders index came in at 49.5 percent in June, the highest since May 2021, indicating that exports continued to maintain a high growth rate in June. "Driven by further recovery in logistics, faster delivery of backlog orders and effective foreign trade stabilization policies, export growth in June is likely to remain at a high double-digit level." Orient Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing said.
According to a report on China's foreign trade situation in the second quarter of 2022 released by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCI), the business situation of foreign trade enterprises improved in the second quarter, and the annual growth expectation of foreign trade enterprises increased. 26.22% of them expect the annual trade volume to increase, and 28.17% of them think it will be at least the same as last year. Among them, the expectations of large enterprises are stable, medium-sized enterprises are optimistic, and the confidence of small and micro enterprises is gradually increasing. Feng Yaoxiang, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and Minister of the Ministry of Trade and Investment Promotion, said that with the overall situation of epidemic prevention and control in China improving and the effects of policies and measures to stabilize growth gradually showing, the operation of foreign trade has seen positive changes.
"The export situation in the second half is optimistic." Li Dawei, a researcher at the Institute of International Economics under the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said Chinese exports have "all-round" competitiveness, meaning Chinese companies can find new export growth points when the external demand structure changes. For example, last year, "homestead economy" related products became the main force driving export growth. This year, with the recovery of overseas and cross-border tourism, the export of travel products has become a new growth point. He expects export growth to stabilize at 10% in the second half.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, believes that global demand is expected to keep expanding in the second half of the year, based on PMI indicators of manufacturing in major economies. As domestic outbreak under control, step by step around the synergy and targeted policies and measures, and supply chain logistics and transportation industry chain, to speed up the return to work and production, domestic demand recovery is expected to help import demand increase, superposition of commodity prices gradually returning to the fundamentals, promote enterprise inventory, is expected in the second half of the import will be improved, overall maintained steady growth of foreign trade.
Comprehensive Measures to enhance resilience and vitality
The recent positive changes in foreign trade are closely related to increased policy support. "Since the beginning of this year, the government has introduced a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade and promoted the steady development of foreign trade through cross-cycle adjustment and comprehensive measures. Compared with before, this time more emphasis on stabilizing the industrial chain and supply chain as soon as possible in the short term, while taking into account the goal of improving the quality of stability." China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Institute deputy director Zhao Ping said.
The General Office of the State Council previously issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Stability and Quality of Foreign Trade", which introduced 13 measures in terms of promoting the general and smooth access to foreign trade, increasing fiscal, tax and financial support, helping foreign trade enterprises to seize orders and expand the market, and stabilizing the industrial and supply chains of foreign trade. Subsequently, MOFCOM, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, the General Administration of Customs and other 27 departments, worked out relevant implementation policies. The executive meeting of The State Council held on June 8 deployed measures to further stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, calling for greater support while implementing the policies already introduced to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment.
Experts say there are a number of factors supporting the resilience of China's foreign trade. In terms of export products, the quality of Chinese products has been recognized by the international community. The export of high-tech and high value added products is increasing. In terms of export objects, China's foreign trade "circle of friends" is constantly expanding, and trade contacts with ASEAN and "One Belt and One Road" countries are increasing; From the enterprise type, the export of private enterprises increased rapidly and the proportion increased. Take the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as an example. Since its implementation six months ago, the RCEP, the world's largest free trade agreement, has delivered constant dividends to the foreign trade development of its member countries. Gu Xueming, president of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, said the RCEP has reduced tariffs on traded goods of regional countries, and played a positive role in regional trade and investment and industrial and supply chain value chains through high-level economic and trade rules.
"The fundamentals of our country's long-term foreign trade remain unchanged and its development is highly resilient." Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of International Economics of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that China is the only country with complete United Nations certified industrial categories, complete domestic industrial supporting system, solid foundation of foreign trade industry; Meanwhile, over the past two years, China's economic development and epidemic prevention and control have maintained a leading position in the world, and its supply chain has shown strong stability. In addition, our logistics system is constantly improving, infrastructure construction is a world leader, the central constantly introduced policies to strengthen the industrial chain weak item.